Centre d'analyse stratégiqueHorizons stratégiques

Summaries of the articles

 

Immigration isn’t what it used to be ...
Yves Chassard

The ageing of the French population should not result in global shortages of labour, as it will be possible to offset the small decline in the working age population with an increase in the participation rate. Thus, there is no justification for greater immigration on macroeconomic grounds, all the more so given that its effect on the equilibrium of social schemes would be small. That said, there are labour shortages in certain sectors and certain occupations. A traditional approach to immigration consisting of migrants doing jobs locals are not prepared to accept is not a long-term solution to the difficulties in filling these positions. On the other hand, an effort should be made to ensure that people who come to live in France on a long-term basis under family reunion provisions or as asylum-seekers can integrate on a professional level and play a role in the economic development of the country. Finally, in the medium-term skilled or even highly skilled immigration is in demand. France must demonstrate that it is an attractive destination for this type of labour, since there is increasing competition among OECD countries. A particular effort must be made to attract foreign students and diversify their recruitment.

Impacts of migratory movements on growth and employment in both arrival and host countries

Manon Domingues Dos Santos

The international migration of skilled workers has increased significantly over the last decade. This article explains the causes and consequences of this phenomenon for source and destination countries, using them to develop some recommendations for regulation. Thus, we highlight the role of selective migration policies in particular in the intensification of this phenomenon. We also explain why ‘brain-drain’ can, over time, become detrimental both to the source country and to the destination country. Finally, we explain the extent to which international cooperation designed to encourage the movement of elites and channel remittances by migrants could be of mutual benefit, the European Union having the power and the means to initiate such a process.

International mobility and attractiveness of students and researchers

Mohamed Harfi, Claude Mathieu

Nowadays, the international mobility of students and researchers appears increasingly to be an instrument designed to balance national labour markets. On the basis of strategic considerations, various countries have already devised or plan to reinforce measures designed to create, attract and retain a « pool» of scientific and technical work force. However, international mobility is also a vehicle for the exchange of knowledge and the enrichment of individuals and is necessary for scientific excellence, which involves interaction between researchers on an international level and insertion in international research networks. International mobility also ensures the international competitiveness of centres of learning and public and private research laboratories, which is increasingly evaluated according to international rankings. Given the importance of the issue, international mobility is becoming the object of increasing interest, and even growing concern, in relation to the extent of «brain drain» among policy makers and in the media. While pointing out these issues, this article analyses the trends and structures of the international mobility of students and researchers in France and overseas. It also contains recommendations for making international mobility a lever for the development of national research and innovation potential and improvements in the performance of the French higher education system.

Household mobility vs Corporate mobility: more leeway in the State’s regional strategic action

El Mouhoub Mouhoud

This article reflects on public policy to accompany, direct and regulate regional changes and differentiation in view of globalisation. The challenges facing the State are considerable since more vulnerable employment areas are located near big towns: factors such as an ageing population and low mobility of some categories of workers imply a risk of labour shortage in dynamic regions and a rise in unemployment in vulnerable employment areas. With effectiveness (of polarisation) and social equity not necessarily being contradictory, intervention in favour of territories cannot be limited to compensation by social redistribution, and a policy aimed at reducing territorial inequalities can in some cases improve overall welfare. Furthermore, taking into account new autonomy trends in household localisation opens more paths for regional policy. Three strategies for government action are proposed, namely: the metropolar strategy, the Lisbon+ strategy and the residential productive strategy. The latter prefers a long-term household localisation policy in residential areas aimed at achieving sustainable development in these areas.
 

A European blue card proposal

Jakob von Weizsäcker

This contribution argues that the EU should open up to skilled immigrants through a points system via a European “Blue Card” granting access to its entire labour market. This European version of the Green Card could become a powerful complement to any national effort to attract top talent. In addition, students graduating with a Masters degree or equivalent from European universities or from top universities abroad should be automatically eligible for a Blue Card. This “Blue Diploma” would help attract young talent early. Finally, in future rounds of EU enlargement, higher-skilled workers should be welcome immediately, provided they reach an earnings threshold: the “External Minimum Wage”. To motivate the discussion, a tentative explanation why countries like Germany and France are lagging behind in the global competition for talent is provided. In Section 2, the basic facts of migration, its skill content, and the increasing supply of skills worldwide are examined. In Section 3 the basic efficiency and distribution arguments for and against high and low-skilled migration are analysed. The impact of emigration - “brawn drain” and “brain gain” - on developing source countries is also discussed. Finally, Section 4 proposes potential policy options for Europe.

Dependent elderly people: making free choice possible

Stéphane Le Bouler

Following the submission of an initial report in July 2005 which contained an estimate of the number of places in residential homes for elderly dependent people, the minister in charge of the elderly ordered (has requested ?) the Centre for Strategic Analysis to deepen the study on a scenario of a balance in care based on six axes: the optimal distribution of different types of places and articulation among these resources; the number of places to be provided by 2010, 2015 and 2025; policies to be implemented in order to develop this diversified range of services; the calculation of corresponding costs; territorial adjustment; coordination with the health sector, both in the community and in the hospital. In response to the minister’s request, the report proposes a global strategy structured around a number of key principles: a preference for home care and mainstream care, support for innovation, the qualitative reinforcement of patient care in institutions, an equitable distribution of costs between the public purse and users, the use of innovative regulations to encourage good performance and an improved territorial allocation.

Ethnological look at residential homes

Sébastien Doutreligne

The inescapable economic and social consequences of the ageing of the population are focussing minds, in particular those of researchers in the human and social sciences. For the first time in France, three ethnologists spent six months at residential homes for elderly dependent people in order to deepen their knowledge of ordinary working conditions and the end of life within these institutions. The results were included in the observations and recommendations made as part of «Perspectives for facilities and services for elderly dependent people», a mission launched at the Commissariat general du Plan (the French Planning Office) and pursued under the guidance of the Centre d’analyse stratégique (Centre for Strategic Analysis). The improved understanding of the context and strategies for action, both for personnel and beneficiaries, aims to build an effective aid for the adaptation of public health care policy.

Knowledge and public policy: a marriage of convenience? Expertise in construction

Stéphane Cadiou

Coinciding with the creation of the Centre for Strategic Analysis, this article poses questions on the direction in which expertise is moving and the developments affecting it. Based on a reading of the literature, its starting point is the gap between the growing echo encountered by this notion and the uncertainties associated with its identity (identification ?). Expertise refers to an interface function that at the same time constitutes the conditions of its variety and fragility. From this point of view, the comparison of different political spaces allows to understand the diversity of forms in which expertise manifests itself, as well as its uses. Conversely, it gives an account of the specifics of the French experience, even though it is increasingly characterised by trends that decompartmentalise the classic administrative method of mobilising expertise.

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