Even though the aftershocks of the 2008-2009 Great Recession are likely to fade in the decade to come, a full turnaround of the global economy is far from certain.
France Stratégie forecasts in a recent study by analyst Arthur Sode average growth of 3.5% per year from 2017 to 2026.
While this is in line with the 3.5% growth recorded for the period 2007 to 2016, it falls short of the 4.1% recorded over the period 1997 to 2006 (graph 1).
“There’s a lot of uncertainty, whether it’s regarding productivity, excess savings, rising inequality or a slowdown in emerging economies,” says Sode. “But growth in advanced economies doesn’t look like it’s set to bounce back to pre-crisis levels any time soon.”
Source : France Stratégie’s projections from the World Economic Outlook, January 2016.