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Publié le
Lundi 17 Avril 2023
In March 2022, France Stratégie and Dares provided a quantified outlook of recruitment needs and difficulties for the upcoming decades in France. In this new study, France Stratégie and Dares describe occupations that will be recruiting by 2030 on a regional scope.

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Their findings indicate that Northern and Eastern regions will probably struggle less with recruitment, whereas other regions, from the Atlantic coast to the Mediterranean basin, are expected to face a potential labour shortage caused by their economic and demographic characteristics. In terms of occupations, maintenance technicians, household staff and vehicle drivers would be facing recruitment difficulties in all French regions. But other occupations, such as marketgardeners, winegrowers and gardeners, farmers and ranchers, engineers and technical supervisors in industry and computer engineers, would also be facing recruitment difficulties.


On a national standpoint, 5% of recruitment needs would not be automatically met by young people entering employment market by 2030. These recruitment difficulties also vary from one region to another. This is mainly due to disparities in regional competitiveness and the attractiveness of the region for young people and workers from other regions. No matter the region, recruitment needs are still powered by departures of senior staff. These departure rates are relatively homogeneous across all regions, ranging from 26% to 31% of regional employment. Recruitment needs are also powered by job creations, which vary from one region to another.

A labour shortage in the west, south-east and the Rhône valley, unlike in the east and north

The western and southern regions are both dynamic in terms of employment (job creation is expected to vary between 4% and 8% of employment in the coming decade) and attractive to professionals from other geographical locations. At the same time, fewer young people are starting out in employment than the national average: recruitment tensions could increase. From 6% to 9% of the job openings by 2030 may not be filled by new resident workers and young people entering employment in the south-west and in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. On the other hand, the less densely populated inland regions as well as the Grand Est and Hauts-de-France have less pronounced imbalances due to lower job creation than the national average. Finally, Île-de-France is characterised by a very strong attractiveness for young people but also by a large number of departures of its working population to the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions.

Recruitment needs: regional disparities by occupation

Among the occupations with a potential labour shortage in all the regions, there are household staff, vehicle drivers and maintenance workers. These high imbalances can be explained above all by the large number of departures of senior staff and the poor attractiveness of this occupation for young entry-level workers. However, a worsening of the shortages would be more marked in the southern and western regions where the labour market is already very tight. In contrast, among engineers and technical executives in industry and computer engineers, the anticipated gap between recruitment needs and labour resources would not be of the same magnitude from one region to another.

This regional version of Occupations in 2030 should in fine enable regional and national decision-makers to be better assisted in their employment, orientation and education policies. By identifying potential labour shortages, it also invites them to take the necessary action beforehand to prevent shortages from hindering growth.


Cécile Jolly - Equipe
Type d'image: 
Travail, emploi, compétences
Jean Flamand
Type d'image: 
Travail, emploi, compétences
Alexis Eidelman (Dares)
Camille Cousin (Dares)
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