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Convergence: Renewing the Promise of the EU

The European Union’s raison d’être is guaranteeing its citizens a lasting peace. This ultimately hinges on its member states enjoying a shared economic prosperity – the operative word being ‘shared’.

Published on : 16/01/2018

Mis à jour le : 11/01/2025

La zone euro, entre convergence et divergence ?

La zone euro entre convergences et divergences, c'était le thème de la dernière rencontre Europe et International de France Stratégie. C'est un thème fondamental parce que la question de l'avenir de la zone euro est bien entendu au cœur des travaux que nous faisons. Si, dans une union monétaire, les pays se mettent à diverger de trop, cela crée des problèmes et des risques sur la soutenabilité à terme de la zone euro.

Pour débattre, France Stratégie a invité Williams Hautmont, économiste au FMI. Le Fonds Monétaire International va publier un document de travail qui dresse un état des lieux de la convergence au sein de l'Union Économique et Monétaire. Ce document étudie les mécanismes d'ajustement qui ont permis ou non de produire une convergence des niveaux de richesse entre les pays membres de la zone euro.

Les principaux résultats de notre étude suggèrent qu'il y avait eu un manque de convergence réelle avant la crise et une divergence réelle en termes de niveau de richesse des pays depuis la crise. En termes de convergence cyclique, on observe une convergence accrue au niveau des cycles conjoncturels. Cependant, au niveau des cycles financiers, une divergence est constatée avant le début de la crise, suivie d'un synchronisme accru mais incomplet, puisque les amplitudes des cycles ont également eu tendance à diverger après la crise.

La finance a créé des divergences considérables dans la zone euro entre pays créanciers et débiteurs, empêchant l'application d'une politique coopérative. Lors de cette réunion, des solutions ont été proposées. L'idée s'est développée qu'on ne peut pas continuer avec une politique purement intergouvernementale, où les gouvernements se renvoient la balle. Il faut aller vers plus d'intégration, ce qui suppose notamment de donner une importance accrue au budget européen. Cela permettrait de financer des politiques, comme la transition écologique, qui pourraient relever la croissance potentielle et contribuer à résoudre les problèmes de stabilité de la zone euro.

Le point de vue régional a également été abordé. Il est en effet important d'évaluer à ce niveau les effets de la monnaie unique sur la diffusion de la production en Europe, car les dynamiques ne sont pas les mêmes selon les régions.

From the get-go the Union has been all about propelling the economic growth of its members. And six decades of existence attest to the measure of success Brussels has had in delivering on this. In effect, the convergence of the economies of new and older member states is one of the EU’s great achievements.

But as it has grown, the increasing challenge has been to lift its less prosperous members to the level of its more affluent states. This is particularly relevant for the eurozone.

The euro: a force for convergence?

Nothing less than the stability and future of the eurozone depend on the EU ensuring all citizens using the common currency enjoy a measure of prosperity.

Given the fundamental importance of the euro, France Stratégie invited IMF economist William Oman earlier this year to discuss a January 2018 IMF working paper that examines convergence within the EMU.[1]

Oman and his co-authors explained that while there has been nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, there has been a lack of real convergence in per capita income levels since the euro was adopted by 11 member states in 1999. In fact, it stagnated over the first few years and even reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis.

The hope was the common currency would increase trade and capital flows, thereby boosting growth. In addition, member states’ inability to control the value of their currency by printing money to devalue it was supposed to force them to take measures to boost productivity. The upshot of this, together with counter-cyclical fiscal policies – i.e. spending and lowering taxes during a downturn or vice versa in an upswing – would be a movement towards a convergence in per capita income levels.

In reality, macroeconomic imbalances (e.g. current account deficits or private indebtedness) grew, and increased cross-border capital flows became destabilizing during the first decade of the euro. The authors put this down to pro-cyclical national fiscal policies and a lack of structural reform. In other words, they question government spending, taxation and willingness to reform labour markets.

They highlight the eurozone’s solid monetary policy framework has led to low inflation and a stable exchange rate, increasing “business and financial cycle synchronization, but stronger policies to help cushion divergent shocks are needed to improve economic performance.”

Some of the solutions they advocate are developing a common fiscal capacity by transferring budgetary power to the EU level and completing the Banking Union and Capital Markets Union. They also stress mitigating the risk and macroeconomic cost of financial instability through macroprudential regulation (e.g. reducing banks’ leverage by lowering their assets-to-equity ratio).

Politics first

Beyond macroeconomics and finance, Oman and his colleagues highlight the need for worker education and R&D in spurring greater convergence of income levels for the European project. This is echoed by Growing United: Upgrading Europe's Convergence Machine, a report released by the IMF in early March, which emphasizes bolstering skills and innovation to plug the productivity gap between southern and northern member states and reduce regional inequalities within countries.

Anne-Laure Delatte, deputy director of France’s Centre for Prospective Studies and International Information (CEPII), raised the key question of whether the IMF expects the single currency to drive convergence or, conversely, whether it sees convergence itself strengthening the single currency.

As US economist Kenneth Rogoff has shown, Delatte said, the dollar did not work optimally for the US – i.e. it wasn’t an Optimum Currency Area (OCA) – until 1930, just shy of 140 years after its creation. This is when unemployment insurance, social security and agricultural price supports were put in place, cushioning regional shocks and redistributing reserves lost through interregional payment deficits.    

A common fiscal policy, she concurred, was a necessity to open up the possibility of transfers, stabilizing economies in the short run and increasing potential growth in the long run.

But as Michel Aglietta, economist and emeritus professor at the University of Paris X Nanterre, and CEPII advisor, pointed out, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is limited by its lack of political governance. The difference with the US is plain and simple: the latter had a common constitution. In other words, politics came – and continues to come – first.

There is no question the debate on convergence is gathering steam, driven as it is by inequality, unemployment and poverty. And regardless of the means advocated for achieving it, the renewed growth in the EU has only added to the sense of urgency that now is the time to take concerted action lest it be too late.

[1] Oman W. et al (2018), “Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?”, IMF Workign Papers, No. 18/10, International Monetary Fund.

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