For a given occupation, job openings (or recruitment needs) by 2030 result both from the number of job gains and losses– that change the current workforce – and jobs vacated by senior workers. Some of these recruitment needs will be met by young people who have completed their initial training and are starting out in the occupation.
Comparing recruitment needs and young entrants can highlight potential imbalances in certain occupations. There may be more job vacancies than identified labour resources or, conversely, the number of young people entering an occupation may exceed the number of job vacancies. Recruitment needs not met by young people entering employment by 2030 can be met by people already in employment and coming from other occupations, jobseekers or, to a lesser extent, by inactive people re-entering the labour market and new immigrants.
On the contrary, imbalances can be increased by mobility to other occupations, departures from employment to unemployment or inactivity in certain occupations: this is illustrated in figure A on the next page.
To ensure the overall consistency of employment projections by occupation, Occupations in 2030 draws on a baseline macroeconomic scenario derived from sectoral modelling of the economy.
This scenario is primarily based on demographic and macroeconomic trends, particularly the active population, the productivity gains, the international context (excluding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict) and the policies implemented (only those already decided on are taken into account). As a result of the pandemic, it also incorporates increased household preference for healthcare and a continuing use of telework which reduces mobility and the use of public places. Several alternative scenarios are also considered as variants. The “low-carbon” scenario makes it possible to meet the objectives of the national low-carbon strategy (NLCS) by 2030, in particular through a substantial acceleration of investment (see inset below for a description of the main differences between the baseline scenario and the low-carbon scenario). The “Covid+” scenario assumes a stronger impact of the pandemic on social distancing by 2030.
In total, in the baseline scenario, 1 million jobs would be created between 2019 and 2030, which would lead to a gradual decline in structural unemployment. This decrease is consistent with the path chosen by the Pension Orientation Council (COR).